btcgraphs — Bitcoin Analysis & Research

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📊 Live Charts Auto-updated

Regenerated by ./update.sh (runs on pi@fridge, fetches fresh data and rebuilds HTML/PNG). One model, two ways — charts below share the same power law but show different views of it.

Core Model (Power Law Bands)

btc_price_graph.html Full power law bands: trend (R²=0.96), floor, ceiling. Log-log chart with all historical peaks. This is the primary chart. auto

expo_offset_decay_revisited.html Peak Offset Decay model. Cycle peak → floor ratio declining over successive halving cycles. Fits 2013–2025 peaks to offset = a·exp(−b·n), projects 1–2 cycles forward. Green stars are the model's projected next peaks. Blue dotted line is the same model connecting all cycles. Floor (orange dash) = reference. auto

Derived & Supplementary

btc_difficulty_price_graph.html BTC price vs mining difficulty over time. Two-panel: price (top) + difficulty (bottom). auto

btc_volatility_graph.html 10-year rolling annualized volatility (~74% current). Trend declining over time. auto

btc_price_predictions.html Analyst price predictions compiled from public sources (Cathie Wood, Fidelity, PlanB, etc.) with error bars. Not a model — just a collection of third-party forecasts. auto

reddit-growth-of-readers.html r/Bitcoin subscriber growth vs BTC price. Social adoption signal. auto

ranking_graph.html Coinbase app store ranking as retail adoption proxy. auto

Refresh: Run ./update.sh on pi@fridge to regenerate all auto charts and push to GitHub. Pipeline: fetch data → run 8 scripts → git add/commit/push → Cloudflare auto-deploys.

📄 Static Reports Not auto-regenerated

Standalone research documents. Written once, reviewed, published. Content does not change with market data.

Bitcoin Power Law Theory (CNERVF)

Why Bitcoin's exponent is ~5.7 (not 2.0): three compounding network effects — network (2.0), security (1.7), market (2.0).

bitcoin_power_law_exponent_theory.html — Full academic paper (11 sections, MathJax)

BITCOIN_EXPONENT_EXPLAINED.html — Plain-English FAQ version

Scale Invariance

Tests if BTC's power law is a universal property by comparing 16+ assets (Internet users, broadband, McDonald's, stocks).

scale_invariance_consolidated_report.html — Full report with live data

SCALE_INVARIANCE_SYSTEM_SPEC.md — Technical spec

Genesis Date Hypothesis

Validates Jan 3, 2009 (Genesis block) as near-optimal start date for power law modeling. Tested 147 start dates.

genesis_date_sensitivity_analysis.html — Interactive 4-panel dashboard

genesis_date_comparison.html — Genesis vs optimal date comparison

LPPLS Bubble Detection

Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity model — extremely sensitive to window size. Results at this link.

LPPLS_WINDOW_SENSITIVITY_REPORT.html — Window sensitivity report

Power Law & Social Networks

Infection dynamics on scale-free networks produce power law growth (R²~0.91-0.95), supporting the clustered adoption hypothesis.

POWER_LAW_SOCIAL_NETWORKS_FINAL_REPORT.html — Final report

Retirement Strategy

Long-term BTC investment strategy based on power law projections.

retirement/index.html — Interactive retirement calculator

Clauset Power Law Testing

Clauset-Shalizi-Newman (2009) methodology — distribution vs trend distinction.

CLAUSET_POWER_LAW_ANALYSIS_REPORT.md — Technical report

🧰 Tools & Utilities

btc_interactive_dashboard_js_full.html — Pure JS power law calculator (no server, open in browser)

btc_monthly_output/btc_price_monthly_overview.html — Monthly price breakdown

investment_opportunities.html — Multi-asset scanner results (1,985+ assets)

bracket_calculator.html — Bracket calculator

📁 Data Files

btcpricehistory.csv — Daily BTC price history (updated by update.sh) auto

pl_coefficients.json — Power law coefficients (slope, intercept, floor, ceiling) auto

btc_intermediate_values.csv — Model attributes, predicted peaks & winter lows auto

difficultychartdata.csv — Mining difficulty history auto

coinbase_ranking.csv — Coinbase app store ranking auto

expo_offset_decay_predictions.csv — Offset decay model predictions (2029, 2033) auto

btc_peaks.csv — All identified historical peaks (static reference) static

cleaned_btc_price_predictions.csv — Analyst prediction sources static

r-bitcoin-subscribers-history.csv — Reddit subscriber history static

dips.csv — Historical dip events static

🗄 Archive Not regenerable

One-off experiments, variant charts, and historical outputs. Kept for reference but not part of the live pipeline.

Show archived files (87 items)

Daily Movement Histograms

Per-year histograms of daily BTC price changes.

All years · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020