Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

Every price assumption here comes from the Rail Thesis white paper — the mechanism (§1–8), why the wealth ladder tops out (§9), and the real-data fit for the break and cycle decay (§10).

How long do you expect to live? The calculator will determine how many years of retirement to plan for based on this age.
How much Bitcoin do you already own? This will calculate how much more you need to reach your retirement goal.

💰 Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)

Enter your planned DCA strategy (leave at 0 if not using DCA)

When does the wealth ladder top out? From this year, price growth slows from the historical ~5.65 exponent to the post-break exponent below (rail thesis). Fitted to real data: break 2023, exponent 3.13. Set far future (e.g. 2100) to keep the old behaviour.
Why these values: real-data test in the white paper, Section 10 (a broken power law fits better than a single exponent; the best post-break exponent lands on the user-growth floor from Section 9).
3.13 = the exponent fitted to real price history after the break (≈ the user-growth floor). 5.65 = no change. White paper §10.

🔁 Cycle Model (fitted to real data)

Sawtooth cycles around the trend, decaying over time. Defaults measured from real 2010-2026 cycle tops (spacing ~3.8y, amplitude half-life ~6.7y). Uncheck to go back to smooth lines. White paper §10 shows the real cycle-top decay series and why these numbers were chosen.

📤 Spend Strategy (selling into the cycle)

Selling on a fixed date each year is not the only option. With the cycle model on, you can hold cash across a trough and refill at the next peak. Set the buffer you are willing to hold and the fraction of the peak price you realistically capture — the results compare this against plain annual selling. (Peak-timing only beats plain selling if the capture is high; at ~70% it usually loses, because the cycle amplitude decays.)